Despite 2-years of doom and gloom, the housing market is poised for a comeback in 2025, as lower rates unleash pent-up demand.
(Plus the numbers that the Toronto Real Estate Board does not share with the media)
Downloadable PDF with Price Charts: https://www.dalinda.net//MEDIA/REPORTS/83/DalindaReportJanuary2025.pdf
TORONTO – January 11, 2025
2024
The 2024 market had resulted in the second lowest number of sales since 2001 for Toronto’s real estate resale market, as the Toronto Real Estate Board had reported 67,610 sales of single-family dwellings in 2024.
Total sales had increased by 2.6% from the 65,877 sales that had been recorded in 2023, which was the lowest year-end total in 24-years, and total sales had decreased by 10% from the 75,045 sales that had been recorded in 2022.
Foolish policies by the Bank of Canada (BoC) to increase interest rates that were then followed by major rate drops had created a historic level of uncertainty and financial turmoil leading to the worst sales levels in two decades.
The year-end, January 1 to December 31, single-family dwelling cumulative average price for the Toronto area in 2024 had totalled $1,117,623, which had decreased by 0.7% from $1,126,263 in 2023.
December 2024
The month of December had proven to be challenged for Toronto’s real estate resale market, which had resulted in decreased sales, as the Toronto Real Estate Board had reported 3,359 sales of single-family dwellings in December 2024.
Total sales were down by 1.8% from the 3,419 sales that had been recorded in December 2023, and total sales had decreased by 43% from the 5,875 sales that had been recorded in November 2024.
- The December average price had decreased by 1.6%.
The average price in December 2024 had decreased by 1.6% to $1,067,186 from $1,084,757 in December 2023. The December 2024 average price had decreased by 3.5% from the November 2024 average price of $1,106,050.
Looking just at the City of Toronto for December 2024, the average price for a detached home had been $1,624,500, while the average price for a condominium apartment had totalled $719,774, which had increased from $709,283 in December 2023.
- Active listings had increased year over year but decreased from November.
The number of active listings in December 2024 had decreased by 29.4% to 15,393 from the 21,818 active listings in November 2024 and had increased by 48.5% from the 10,368 active listings in December 2023.
- The Humber Bay Shores average price had totalled $667,733.
Condominium apartment sales in the W06 west district that represents Humber Bay Shores had decreased to 27 sales in December 2024 from 46 sales in November 2024. The average condominium price in this district had totalled $667,733 in December 2024, which had decreased by 7% from $718,020 in November 2024.
- The W07 average price had totalled $2,295,000.
Home sales of detached houses in the W07 west district, which geographically represents Sunnylea, Thomson Orchard, and Spring Garden Park, had decreased to 3 sales in December 2024 from 10 sales in November 2024. The average detached home price in this district had totalled $2,295,000 in December 2024, which had increased by 39% from $1,647,500 in November 2024.
- The W08 average price had totalled $1,795,307.
Home sales of detached houses in the W08 west district, which geographically represents Edenbridge, Humber Valley, North Drive, and The Kingsway, had decreased to 18 sales in December 2024 from 50 sales in November 2024. The average detached home price in this district had totalled $1,795,307 in December 2024, which had decreased by 18% from $2,190,304 in November 2024.
- The W01 average price had totalled $3,518,333.
Home sales of detached houses in the W01 west district, which geographically represents Riverside Drive, Brule Gardens, and South Kingsway, had decreased to 3 sales in December 2024 from 9 sales in November 2024. The average detached home price in this district had totaled $3,518,333 in December 2024, which had increased by 78% from $1,968,000 in November 2024.
- The Oakville average price had totaled $2,049,830.
Home sales of detached houses in Oakville had decreased to 47 sales in December 2024 from 111 sales in November 2024. The average detached home price in this district had totaled $2,049,830 in December 2024, which had decreased by 4% from $2,133,109 in November 2024.
Where is the market?
In 2024, there had been 390 sales of condominium units that had been sold for under $750,000 in the Humber Bay Shores area.
During this time, there had been 219 sales of condominium units that had been sold for above the $750,000 price point. Of that amount, there had been 143 sales of condominium units that had been sold for between $750,000 and $1,000,000. Of those, 3 sales were from Palace Place, 8 were from Palace Pier, none were from Waterford, 5 were from Ocean Club, 2 were from Lago, and 7 were from Vita.
There had been 62 sales of condominium units that had been sold for between $1,000,000 and $1,500,000. Of those, 6 sales were from Palace Place, 7 were from Palace Pier, 2 were from Ocean Club, 5 were from Lago, and 1 was from Vita.
Finally, 15 sales were sold for over $1.5M. Of those, 3 sales were from Palace Place, 6 sales were from Waterford, 3 were from Palace Pier, 1 was from Vita.
Looking at Mirabella, which is outside Humber Bay Shores, there were 47 sales in 2024.
There had been 34 sales that had been sold for under the $750,000. During this time, there had been 13 sales above the $750,000 price point. Of that amount, there had been 5 sales of condominium units that had been sold for between $750,000 and $1,000,000.
Finally, there were 8 sales that had been sold from $1M to $1.2M.
Water’s Edge, 38 Annie Craig Drive, a 56-storey tower, has just been completed and will be bringing new resale inventory to market in 2025.
2025 Market Commentary by Daiva Dalinda
We are on the cusp of a very dynamic time in real estate due to the significantly changed political and economic environment.
Politically, we have the U.S. potentially imposing inflationary tariffs on Canada.
Also, should the trend towards electing right party leaders continue, then there is a strong likelihood for a new Conservative Prime Minister in Canada who promises to improve a sluggish economy and reduce the country’s high debt levels with economic growth policies.
All this remains to be seen, but it is instilling some caution and uncertainty in the markets in spite of the Bank of Canada rate drop from 5% this time last year to 3.25% today.
Also the inflation rate is currently down to a below target rate of 1.9%
Economically, new mortgage rules coupled with lower interest rates are easing buyers into friendlier markets:
1) 30 year amortizations are available for first time buyers and new home buyers.
2) A ceiling increase from 1 million to 1.5 million for insured mortgages, allows buyers to buy with less than 20% down on more typically priced properties.
3) Eliminating stress testing when switching lenders creates bargaining power for homeowners.
This economic easing together with an expected increase in listing inventory due to 40% of mortgages coming up for renewal this year, will provide buyers with more opportunities.
Bottom line, buyers are seeing a light at the end of the tunnel already witnessed by the increase in sales activity for homes over 3 million by wealthier, less interest rate sensitive buyers. This promises to filter down to buyers of more modestly priced homes.
The latest research at Royal LePage is predicting detached homes in Toronto to increase 6% in 2025.
Condo prices however are still stifled by the over built environment and so are expected to drop a further 1% in 2025.
Of note is the disaster befallen condo sales for predominantly small condo units, that were once the domain of now scarce first time buyers and investors.
On the other hand larger, quality condos in prime locations have been holding their value and are in demand with families and down-sizers, that are emboldened by stronger price expectations for their resale homes.
One thing for certain is that real estate will continue to be a tale of two markets. Those with wealth who can easily buy, and those not likely to do much more than just try to hang onto what they have.
For all these reasons, an intelligent and personalized marketing strategy will allow our buyers and our sellers to navigate the housing market successfully.
You are invited to reach out at any time to discuss your specific needs.
To view the Palace Place Price Chart, click here:
https://www.dalinda.net/price-charts/palace-place-2024
To view the Mirabella Price Chart, click here:
https://www.dalinda.net/price-charts/mirabella-condos-2024
For a breakdown of market stats by neighborhood, click here:
https://www.dalinda.net/featured-neighbourhoods/
By Luke Dalinda
E: LDALINDA@DALINDA.NET • TEL: 416-725-7170
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Palace Place, 1 Palace Pier Court, and Palace Pier, 2045 Lake Shore Boulevard West, in Humber Bay Shores.
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View all current and past Palace Place listings for sale here.
Luke Dalinda, Realtor. Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd., Brokerage.
View all current and past Palace Place listings for sale here.