Today, September 2, 2026, the Bank of Canada has announced that it is holding its rate again for the seventh consecutive time at 2.25%, keeping the rate that it had first established on October 29, 2025.
The Bank of Canada has effectively suggested that the only certainty is continued uncertainty, which is what we have been saying all along. The Bank of Canada is most concerned that high oil prices and elevated refinery margins from the ongoing Middle East conflict, especially with little progress reopening the Strait of Hormuz, could persist long enough to spill over from gasoline into broader prices given that the Consumer Price Index has already hovered near 3%. It also worries that newly announced US tariffs and Canadian counter-measures, following the breakdown of trade talks, will raise business costs, feed into consumer prices over time, and put the sustainability of Canada’s recent economic rebound at risk. Those pressures come as financial conditions have tightened and long-term bond yields have risen globally, including in Canada, which could raise borrowing costs for households, businesses, and governments, and further weigh on housing, investment, and the durability of the recovery. With labour demand still subdued and excess supply remaining in the economy, the outlook for both growth and inflation is highly uncertain.
As we have maintained since April 2025, the Canadian economy would gain significant stability from a robust trade agreement with its largest trading partner, provided the government can overcome its ineffective negotiation efforts.
The real estate market is being driven right now by unfounded hype as most Canadians rally around Canada’s “tariff for tariff, dollar for dollar” strike on the US. What Canadians are seemingly missing is that the US is still out there making other deals, like the recently announced deal for 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil. Such a deal ultimately means that the US, Canada’s biggest oil buyer, will have less reliance on Canadian oil, if any at all. The US is clearly looking for new suppliers to replace Canada.
In all, 21 countries have signed new trade deals with the US, and not one has wavered from that commitment. As this begins to sink in, it will undermine economic certainty and could lead to dark days ahead for the real estate market.
Canada cannot treat US Democrats as our heroes either. Senator Adam Schiff has just lined up with Trump to pull film jobs back from Canada. If Democrats take Congress, it puts a California Democrat in a stronger position to pass that measure. Film is just one item. Auto, steel, and energy have already been hit. Democrats can easily adopt those positions too.
In Humber Bay Shores, active inventory has decreased slightly from 249 active listings this summer to 239 now, still signalling softening demand given the 197 listings in the spring and potential downward pressure on prices in the coming months.
As Canada continues to opt for escalation over certainty, now is the time to consider selling to capitalize on the existing hype for Canada, because it just won’t last.
Perpetual, compounding uncertainty is the new norm.
The best rates that we have seen so far:
3 year fixed at 4.04% (increased from 3.99% in July 2026)
5 year variable at 3.60%
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is October 28, 2026.
Read the history of these events here:
MY WHY:
E: LDALINDA@DALINDA.NET • TEL: 416-725-7170
Be sure that you SUBSCRIBE to this blog to be the first to know of new listings even before they hit MLS! Stay tuned. The Subscribe link is to the left of this post.
Palace Place, 1 Palace Pier Court, and Palace Pier, 2045 Lake Shore Boulevard West, in Humber Bay Shores.
Follow @LukeDalinda on Instagram!
View all current and past Palace Place listings for sale here.
Luke Dalinda, Realtor. Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd., Brokerage.
View all current and past Palace Place listings for sale here.